The opening words of THE TALE OF TWO CITIES by Charles Dickens have ricocheted through my thoughts since about the beginning of the the COVID-19 crisis.
French Revolution |
Describing "the terror" of the French Revolution in 1789, a sad and far more violent revolution than the American version that spawned, it nevertheless offers words to address our current 21st Century.
The 21st Century has not been kind to humankind. Starting with the great computer blackout in 2000 because no one thought to consider a new century of date counting with millions of Microsoft Window Computers, the soon to follow Internet crash of 2001-2002, a kind of new age Ponzi scheme, to the effects of 9/11 that changed the way we viewed travel and ourselves forever. The iPhone in 2007, a device David Pogue said would change everything and we, at Macworld in January of 2007 thought Steve Jobs and crew had smoked too much something in Silicon Valley. (Pogue was right, the iPhone and Android DID change everything in ways we still don't understand now). From China we had SARS, and MERS and H1N1, and now of course, COVID-19. Global warming became a reality from the scientists abstract as vast changes in weather and climate stalked the earth. Huge swathes of industry quit camp at home and went to China and other places in search of cheaper labor and more profits. Because of the ensuing pandemic world trade is coming to a standstill. Stock market exchanges around the world have crashed and so far 1/3 of all wealth has vanished overnight.
Hurricane Katrina: New Orleans under water |
We had terrible hurricanes and blizzards, historic floods, the population of the world seemed to be on the move, never-ending wars, democratic governments increasingly seem to fall before strongmen, some letting go and others holding on at a terrible human price, one economic rupture that nearly brought the world down in 2008-2009 and is now being brought down again by a pandemic. And to think, all this in only 20 years.
Christians will find many words in their Bible about change. And let there be NO doubt, we are witnessing one of the biggest changes in humankind's history. One portion of the Bible that comes to mind to me is Ecclestiastes 3:1-8: For everything there is a season, and a time for every activity under heaven: a time to be born and a time to die, a time to plant and a time to uproot, a time to kill and a time to heal, a time to tear down and a time to build, a time to weep and a time to laugh, a time to mourn and a time to dance, a time to scatter stones and a time to gather them, a time to embrace and a time to refrain, a time to search and a time to give up, a time to keep and a time to throw away, a time to tear and a time to mend, a time to be silent and a time to speak, a time to love and a time to hate, a time for war and a time for peace. (NIV).
See No Evil! |
Wise words but hardly comforting. Of soberer thought are Lincoln's words during the Civil War: "Human nature will not change. In any future great national trial, compared with the men of this, we shall have as weak and as strong, as silly and as wise, as bad and as good."
Many wise men and women have predicted these times. Eric Toffler predicted in the 1990's that the 21st Century would have the biggest migration of people than ever before in the history of the world. The great philosopher Santana wisely said, "Those who forget history are condemned to relive it. Even Gladstone in 1795 said, "The only thing necessary for evil to persist is for good men to do nothing."
Border issues are far greater than the US and Mexico. Here immigrants try to get into Hungary! |
XI: Pooh Bear No More |
Is this our future of staying in place? Wuhan interchange in a city of 11 million. |
WIRED magazine had a fascinating article years ago telling how a pandemic would spread. They said it would reach the entire world in 48 hours because, well, too many people travel around the world at any one time. While not exactly following the predicted path it has reached the entire world. And in places where it shouldn't.
China is already bailing out banks |
The blame, if there is really any to be had, is that we have all become interdependent, just as the breakdown in supply chains has clearly shown. While the west has cheerfully moved all it's production to China to let them deal with the smog and political fallout there, they have given up the right to call the shots in search of the cheapest price. Only it's not so cheap anymore if you can't get it.
The rise of far more aggressive governments, the rising cost of labor and transportation already had some looking for a new nest to roost in, places like Viet Nam, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, even countries in the Middle East. After this, it will most likely go from a trickle to a stampede. Companies simply cannot let themselves be caught again without an alternative source.
The rise of far more aggressive governments, the rising cost of labor and transportation already had some looking for a new nest to roost in, places like Viet Nam, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, even countries in the Middle East. After this, it will most likely go from a trickle to a stampede. Companies simply cannot let themselves be caught again without an alternative source.
And it isn't only the United States that has been living beyond it's means. China has a banking and real estate problem so deep that should it fail, as it clearly could in this crisis, Wall Street will have seen nothing yet. We might be glad of "only" losing a third of our wealth. Consider this, it took the stock of General Motors (GM) until 1953 to regain the value it had when Wall Street crashed in 1929. That's right, 24 years.
Christmas? No, hoarding. |
We are scared and we have a right to be. However, we also need to keep level heads and follow the guidelines given to us by the CDC. Sadly our present administration, like the Chinese decided to ignore it, then say it was a hoax perpetrated by the Democrats before the numbers of infected and death tolls started to rise and could not be ignored any longer.
Could it have been avoided? Many health officials say yes. China should have jumped on it at the first reports. President Xi it turns out knew about it two weeks before publicly acknowledging it. As America watched passengers get picked off one by one in the marooned cruise ship in Japan, with many Americans aboard, where one case ballooned to over 700, our government also did nothing. A friend in the shipping business said get them off! Ships have some of the worst filtration systems in the world. If one passenger had it, their virus got sucked into the ducts and was redistributed through the entire ship. It was, in effect a petri dish for the virus. As I write this cruise ships all over the world are being denied docks, even if there are no cases onboard for fear of it coming there.
Could it have been avoided? Many health officials say yes. China should have jumped on it at the first reports. President Xi it turns out knew about it two weeks before publicly acknowledging it. As America watched passengers get picked off one by one in the marooned cruise ship in Japan, with many Americans aboard, where one case ballooned to over 700, our government also did nothing. A friend in the shipping business said get them off! Ships have some of the worst filtration systems in the world. If one passenger had it, their virus got sucked into the ducts and was redistributed through the entire ship. It was, in effect a petri dish for the virus. As I write this cruise ships all over the world are being denied docks, even if there are no cases onboard for fear of it coming there.
San Francisco with all sheltering in place |
And yes, we have "designed" the dilemma that we are in today. Supply chains, shipping, trade and manufacturing are all manmade events. They have thoughtfully been designed for the greatest profit. However, events have shown that not all contingencies have been thought out. I suspect that this will change. One thing is for sure though, the world will never be the same again.
Shelter in place and wash those hands. We must all do what we can to stop a pandemic that cares not for race, or religion, sexual orientation, rich or poor. It is an equal opportunity killer at worst and has the potential to stop the world.
Thank you for reading my blog. I invite you to take the time to read earlier blogs where my emphasis is to explore the ways art and design affects our daily lives ... and always has. I share with you what inspires me with the hope that it will inspire you as well. Comments are always welcomed!
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You really have taken the effort to dissect some of the root causes and outcomes of choices that people and governments have done. Very well written. Thanks for sharing. Looking forward to being out in the sunshine with the friends I miss.
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